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ANS production, DOR forecast: ANS
Series ans_production_forecast.ans.fy
History since 2025
Recent values
| Date | ANS production, DOR forecast |
|---|---|
| 2036-06-30 | 619,800 bbl/d |
| 2035-06-30 | 646,800 bbl/d |
| 2034-06-30 | 650,800 bbl/d |
| 2033-06-30 | 643,800 bbl/d |
| 2032-06-30 | 621,800 bbl/d |
| 2031-06-30 | 581,400 bbl/d |
| 2030-06-30 | 530,100 bbl/d |
| 2029-06-30 | 497,500 bbl/d |
| 2028-06-30 | 512,500 bbl/d |
| 2027-06-30 | 518,500 bbl/d |
| 2026-06-30 | 459,200 bbl/d |
| 2025-06-30 | 468,000 bbl/d |
Related series
- ANS crude production — ANSProduction against the Department of Revenue's official projection — the Willow and Pikka ramp, measured against the forecast the state budgeted on.
More about ANS
About this data
The State of Alaska's OFFICIAL revenue forecast: ANS oil price and
production by fiscal year (~10-year horizon), plus unrestricted general
fund revenue — total, petroleum, and the Permanent Fund POMV transfer —
from DOR's semiannual Revenue Sources Book. These are the numbers the
legislature budgets against, and the natural reference lines to draw
over our daily ANS actuals (akdor_ans_prices) and fund value
(apfc_fund_value). Each edition is a forecast VINTAGE — the revisions
between editions are themselves the story.
Known issues & gotchas
- DataDome fronts tax.alaska.gov (ddjskey present; permissive to
residential IPs, hostile to datacenters) → runner: local.
- Edition discovery, never hardcoded: the connector probes
RSB.aspx?Year=Y&Type=Fall|Spring newest-first and takes the first
page containing the Table 2-5 marker row. The xlsx workbook's
viewer.aspx?NNNNf doc IDs change per edition — HTML is the stable
address.
- Parenthesized negatives and comma thousands in cells; percent rows
("Percent from Petroleum") must be skipped, matched by label not row
number.
- HTML editions exist back to Fall 2021 — a backfill of prior vintages
is possible but each would load with TODAY's vintage_date, corrupting
vintage semantics. **Do not backfill old editions through the normal
loader**; a bespoke historical-vintage load is queued with the steward.
- Forecast obs_dates are in the future (through ~FY2036) — freshness
and staleness read "never stale", which is correct; the grace window
guards the edition cadence via the release rule instead.
- The June-2025-style interim commissioner updates revise the forecast
off-cycle; the daily local run picks them up whenever they land.